# A campaign estimate in five numbers

> Budget, CPM, clicks, conversion and value. The sum that stops you promising a client the impossible.

- Type: tool
- Category: analytics
- Labels: tools, campaigns, advertising, clients
- Author: Redação Swonkie, Equipa editorial
- Published: 2026-08-06
- Canonical: https://swonkie.com/en/hub/campaign-estimate/

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Plenty of people avoid estimating campaign results because it feels like signing up to a promise.
The effect is the opposite of the one intended: with no estimate, when a campaign goes badly nobody
can say where it went off.

## The five numbers

**Budget** and **CPM** give you impressions. CPM swings hard by industry, season and network: in
November it rises everywhere.

**Click-through rate** turns impressions into clicks. Under 1% on social is normal; far above it
usually means an audience that is too small or a promise the ad cannot keep.

**Conversion rate** turns clicks into results, and is the one least influenced by the ad. It depends
on the page people land on.

**Value of one result** closes the sum. Without it you know what it costs and not whether it was
worth it.

## How to use it

With numbers from your own past campaigns. With no history, use industry references and **write next
to them that they are industry references**: a client takes an estimate with explicit assumptions
well, and takes a number with no origin very badly.

## What to do mid-campaign

Compare. If impressions are on plan but clicks are not, the problem is the creative. If clicks are
there and conversions are not, the problem is the page. That is what an estimate is for: not to be
right, to know where to look.

## A note on return

The ratio here is estimated revenue over ad spend. It does not count the hours of whoever builds and
runs the campaign. For the full sum, add what comes out of the
[cost per post calculator](/en/hub/real-cost-per-post/).